石油化工装置HAZOP分析技术概率定量化研究  

Quantitative study over the probability of HAZOP analysing technique in petro-chemical plants

作　　者：付建民[1] 赵东风[2] 陈国明[1] 周乐平[1] 张斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)机电工程学院,山东东营257061 [2]中国石油大学(华东)化学化工学院,山东东营257061

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2008年第6期130-134,共5页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：中国石油天然气股份公司安保基金项目(360-08-2H010261)

摘　　要：分析化工装置定性风险识别技术——危险及可操作分析(HAZOP)技术定量改进的可行性,根据HAZOP分析专家意见,将HAZOP分析所得偏差进行定量化处理。采用层次分析法确定各专家影响权重,通过专家主观评判得到各原因下偏差发生的可能性,根据模糊数学方法将专家自然语言转换为模糊数,采用左右模糊排序法将区间[0,1]的模糊数转换为模糊失效概率值。实例验证表明,该方法能较好反映偏差实际发生概率,高效且便于计算机实现。The present paper is intended to present our Hazard and Operability （HAZOP） analysis method and analysis result in terms of systematic identification of conceivable deviation from the point of view of a designer. Generally speaking, ttAZOP is taken as a qualitative method mixed. As is known, it is of great help to quantify the deviation created by way of systematic HAZOP analysis for risk control. Comprehensively studying the characteristics of the HAZOP technique used in petro-ehemical industry, the paper has done a detailed discussion over the feasibility of the quantitative method. Seeing the fact that .there has not been available accidents and deviations statistics data in the country and the complexity of the operation conditions of petro-chemical plants, the available methods for carrying out the quantitative analysis of HAZOP at home are to be put into practice along with the audit of the expert advice by transforming the deviations resulted from HAZOP analysis into the factors of probability. For this purpose, we think it convenient to present a flow chart of quantification of the probability of HAZOP deviation to a group of experts from different specialties as a think-tank so as for them to fully display their talents and specific knowledge, experience, judging ability and working attitudes. In this way, HAZOP method has been introduced to confirm the influence weight of experts from different specialties. And then AHP is analyzed according to the experts＇ subjective assessments, the probability of deviation in HAZOP experts＇ natural languages turned into the corresponding fuzzy numbers. And consequently, the fuzzy numbers located at [ 0, 1 ] interval would be transformed into fuzzy failure probability by left-right fuzzy sequence. The results of our analysis indicate that the deviation probabilities of equipment failure prove to be very close to the existent failure date. Moreover, the proposed method is true to reflect the great quantity of actual probability such as human error out of contro

关 键 词：风险评价与失效分析 HAZOP 偏差 概率 定量风险分析 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]