雷州半岛雷暴发生频次变化特征及其与作物布局调整的相关分析  

THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THUNDERSTORM VARIATION AND THEIR POSSIBLE RELATION WITH THE ADJUSTMENT OF CROP DISTRIBUTION IN LEIZHOU PENINSULA

作　　者：张羽[1,2] 牛生杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,大气物理与大气环境重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]湛江市气象局,广东湛江524001

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2008年第6期649-657,共9页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(40537034)资助

摘　　要：为了探究雷州半岛作物布局调整对雷暴发生的可能影响,以达到趋利避害,利用相关分析、11种模型拟合和全变量回归分析等数理统计方法进行了分析和研究。结果表明:雷州半岛年雷暴日数总的变化趋势是明显下降,一年四季均有雷暴天气,午后热雷雨占雷暴天气的大多数,其中5～9月雷暴日数最多,开雷、收雷年际变化差异大。随着稻田的减少,糖蔗、水果种植面积的增加,雷州半岛植被结构得到改善,雷暴天数呈明显减少趋势;蔬菜的种植改变了冬季闲田植被性质,不利于冬初、春末雷暴天气的生成;花生种植面积的调整对雷暴天数变化影响不大。雷州半岛水稻、糖蔗、水果、蔬菜等主要农作物布局调整对雷暴发生可能有明显的影响,主要农作物对雷暴天数可能影响从大到小依次为糖蔗、水稻、蔬菜和水果,农作物布局调整对年开雷、收雷的迟早没有影响。In order to research possible influences of the adjustment of plant distribution on the development of thunderstorm over Leizhou Peninsula, mathematic statistic methods, including correlation analyses, 11 kinds of fitting models and all variation regression methods, were used for analyses and research. The results show that the average trend of the number of annual thunderstorm days is descending obviously, and there are thunderstorms in all seasons, in which warm thunderstorm has taken up the most part, and the high frequency is found from May to September, and the starting and ending dates of thunderstorm have great annual discrepancy. The vegetation structure has improved along with the reduction of rice fields and the area increment of sugarcane and fruit planting, which results in the decrease of the number of thunderstorm days; the change of the characteristics of winter spare fields, which is caused by the planting of vegetables, limits the formation of thunderstorms during the start of winter and end of spring. Meanwhile, the area adjustment of peanut planting has little influence on the variation of thunderstorm days. The adjustment of principal crops distribution, such as rice, sugarcane, fruit and vegetables, may have obvious influence on the formation of thunderstorms, and sugarcane has the largest effect, followed in turn by rice, vegetables and fruit, and the adjustment of crops distribution has little influence on the starting and ending dates of thunderstorms.

关 键 词：雷州半岛 雷暴频次 作物布局调整 

分 类 号：P446[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]