上海气温变化及城市化影响初步分析  

PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN SHANGHAI AND URBANIZATION IMPACTS

作　　者：穆海振[1] 孔春燕[1] 汤绪[2] 柯晓新[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海市气候中心,上海200030 [2]上海市气象局,上海200030

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2008年第6期672-678,共7页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

摘　　要：为研究在全球变化背景下上海市区气温变化规律和城市化进程对其影响,分析了上海市区气温对全球变暖的响应,对比了市区和郊区气温在不同气候背景下的变化趋势,采用与郊区台站对比法分析了上海市区气温城市化效应,研究了城市化进程与气温各分量长期变化趋势之间的关系,将高空与地面观测资料相结合,定量估算了城市化效应对平均气温的贡献,初步讨论了气温的城市化效应成因。研究结果表明:1873～2004年上海市区年平均气温的长期变化趋势为1.31℃/(100 a),在1921～1948年和1979～2004年两个时期增温明显,其中第二段增温强于第一段;与郊区站点相比,市区在降温期内降温最小,增温期内升温幅度最大;城市发展导致市区和郊区气温有显著差别且温差逐年加大,其中平均气温和最低气温在秋季的差别最大,最高气温市区和郊区之间差别在夏季最大;城市化进程加快了地面气温升高的速率,其中以最低气温最为明显;在1980年代城市化效应使上海市区年平均温度平均升高0.4℃,在1990年代平均升高1.1℃。To study the air temperature change patterns in urban Shanghai against the background of global climate change and how urbanization affects them, the responses of the urban Shanghai temperature to global warming are analyzed first, and the trends of temperature variation are then compared between the urban and suburb stations to determine the urban temperature response to urbanization in Shanghai. Thirdly, the relationships between urbanization variables and long-term temperature components are obtained. Fourthly, surface and high-level observations of temperature are combined to make quantitative assessment of the contribution of urbanization effects to mean temperature. For the last part, the cause of urbanization effects on temperature is discussed. The results indicate that the long-term change trend of Shanghai annual mean temperature is 1.31℃/（100 a） from 1873 to 2004, and the periods of 1921-1948 and 1979-2004 are warmer, with the latter having a larger increase than the former one; compared with the suburb stations, the urban stations have slower decrease of temperature in cooling periods and faster increase in warming periods; resulting from urbanization, the urban and suburb temperature has distinct differences, which are increasing by the year; the differences of mean temperature and minimum temperature are the greatest in fall and those of maximum temperature are the largest in summer; the urbanization process accelerates the warming rate, among which the minimum temperature is the most obvious; on average, the urbanization effects account for an average increase of 0.4℃ in the 1980s and 1.1℃ in the 1990s.

关 键 词：城市化效应 气温 上海 

分 类 号：P423.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TU992[建筑科学—市政工程]