风电场风速随机性及容量系数分析  

Analysis of wind speed probability distribution and wind turbine generator capacity factor

作　　者：牟聿强[1] 王秀丽[1] 别朝红[1] 徐林[1] 朱卫平[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学电气工程学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2009年第1期65-70,共6页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国家863计划项目(2006AA05Z247);国家自然科学基金(50777052);教育部光伏工程研究中心开放基金

摘　　要：针对国内风电场实测风速数据,利用三种分布模型拟合平均风速分布,结果说明Weibull分布是一种适合于描述平均风速分布的模型。针对不同的Weibull分布参数估计方法,提出了用风力发电机有功功率概率分布来检验参数估计效果的方法。同时也给出了一种求取风力发电机有功分布的方法。针对国内风电场实测风速数据,用Gumbel分布拟合极限风速分布,结果表明Gumbel分布适合描述极限风速的分布。通过用风速序列法和Webull法分别计算某风电场12个月容量系数结果表明在大风月份容量系数较大。通过对十台风力发电机容量系数的计算给出了风力发电机参数对容量系数的影响,得出的结论对于风电场风力发电机选型有一定指导意义。Three functions are used for fitting the 10 rains mean wind speed probability distribution. Weibull distribution gives a better result. The scale and shape parameters of Weibull distribution are estimated using three methods. The suitability of the estimated methods is judged from the ability to describe the experimental wind power density distribution. Also the paper proposes a method to calculate the wind power density distribution. The Gumbel distribution is adopted in this study to fit the extreme wind speed data. It is found from the result that the Gumbel distribution is suitable. The wind speed data in the chronological （time-series） format and probabilistic （Weibull） format are used to estimate the monthly capacity factor of Growian-3MW turbine. It is shown that the strong wind period leads to significantly higher capacity factors than the weak wind period. Capacity factor of fifteen turbines at one site is done using the Weibull approach. The result will enable the wind power developer to make a judicious choice from kinds of wind turbine generators.

关 键 词：风速 拟合 分布 容量系数 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]