扩散参数的不确定性及其对扩散因子的影响  

Uncertainty of Diffusion Parameters andIts Effect on Diffusion Factor

作　　者：胡二邦[1] 王寒[1] 马红友[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国辐射防护研究院

出　　处：《环境科学》1998年第1期69-72,79,共5页Environmental Science

摘　　要：根据联邦德国卡尔斯鲁厄核研究中心（ＫｆＫ）３１次示踪实验（排放高度为６０ｍ）结果，定量估算了高架源、大粗糙度地形条件下，各类天气相应的扩散参数的不确定度．发现同一地点、同一天气类型，扩散参数实测值相差可达二个量级，σｙ的不确定度随天气类型由Ａ至Ｆ类而变大．采用拉丁超立方取样方法估算了上述扩散参数不确定度实测值所导致的小时轴向扩散因子（从而导致空气浓度及吸入剂量等）的不确定度．在Ｆ类天气，扩散因子值相差可达４个数量级．图示了各类天气条件下扩散因子不确定度随下风距离的变化关系．This paper estimates quantitatively uncertainty of diffusion parameters for various atmospheric stability under the condition of elevated release and large roughness based on the result of 31 tracer experiments(release hight of 60m)completed by Karlsruhe Nuclear Research Center(KfK),Germany.It could be seen that the difference of measuring values of diffusiotn parameter is able to reach 2 orders of magnitude even if in the same site and the same atmospheric stability.The uncertainty of σy increases with stability from A to F.The uncertainty of hour axial diffusion factor (and so air concentration) caused from above uncertainty of measuring values of diffusion parameter is estimated by using Latin Hypercube Sample(LHS) method.For F stability the difference of diffusion factor can reach 4 orders of magnitude.The relation between the uncertainty of diffusion factor and downwind distance under various atmospheric stability condition is shown by figures.

关 键 词：大气扩散 扩散参数 扩散因子 大气质量评价 

分 类 号：X823[环境科学与工程—环境工程]