Thrusts and Prospects on Understanding and Predicting Asian Monsoon Climate  

作　　者：王斌 

机构地区：[1]Department of Meteorology and International Pacific Research Center,School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology,University of Hawaii at Manoa

出　　处：《Acta meteorologica Sinica》2008年第4期383-403,共21页

基　　金：Supported by NSF climate dynamics program (ATM06-47995);by IPRC,which is in part sponsored by FRCGC/JAMSTEC,NASA,and NOAA.

摘　　要：Development of monsoon climate prediction through integrated research efforts to improve our understanding of monsoon variability and predictability is a primary goal of the Asian Monsoon Years （200-2011） and International Monsoon Study under the leadership of the World Climate Research Programme. The present paper reviews recent progress in Asian monsoon research focusing on （1） understanding and modeling of the monsoon variability, （2） determining the sources and limits of predictability, and （3） assessing the current status of climate prediction, with emphasis on the weekly to interannual time scales. Particular attention is paid to identify scientific issues and thrust areas, as well as potential directions to move forward in an attempt to stimulate future research to advance our understanding of monsoon climate dynamics and improve our capability to forecast Asian monsoon climate variation.Development of monsoon climate prediction through integrated research efforts to improve our understanding of monsoon variability and predictability is a primary goal of the Asian Monsoon Years （200-2011） and International Monsoon Study under the leadership of the World Climate Research Programme. The present paper reviews recent progress in Asian monsoon research focusing on （1） understanding and modeling of the monsoon variability, （2） determining the sources and limits of predictability, and （3） assessing the current status of climate prediction, with emphasis on the weekly to interannual time scales. Particular attention is paid to identify scientific issues and thrust areas, as well as potential directions to move forward in an attempt to stimulate future research to advance our understanding of monsoon climate dynamics and improve our capability to forecast Asian monsoon climate variation.

关 键 词：Asian monsoon climate predictability climate prediction intraseasonal oscillation 

分 类 号：P462.41[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]