基于时间序列法的舰船运动预报实验研究  

Research on the Prediction of the Ship Motion Using Time-Series Analysis

作　　者：张兮龙[1] 叶家玮[1] 魏栋[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学交通学院,广州510640

出　　处：《船海工程》2008年第6期13-16,共4页Ship & Ocean Engineering

摘　　要：采用线性自回归AR模型、具有首前波观测量的ARMA模型以及非线性自回归NAR模型三种方法分别对舰船运动进行预报,将得到的预报结果与实验测量结果进行验证比较,并对最佳预报模式进行讨论。The auto-regressive （AR） model, the ARMA model with the history of the wave elevation ahead of bow and the nonlinear auto-regressive （NAR） model were applied respectively to predict the ship motions, and the numerical simulations were examined against the experimental results. 3 prediction models of ship mo- tion were analyzed to get the best one.

关 键 词：时间序列法 舰船运动 预报模型 

分 类 号：U661.32[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]