考虑模糊和随机变量的混合算法的程序实现  

Program Realization for Hybrid Algorithm under Joint Fuzzy and Random Uncertainty

作　　者：张土乔[1] 邵煜[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学土木工程学系,杭州310027

出　　处：《科技通报》2009年第1期72-76,共5页Bulletin of Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50278088);新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-04-0525)

摘　　要：针对模糊参数和随机参数同时存在的情况,运用蒙特卡罗随机模拟产生随机样本,结合模糊参数的可能性分布,采用修正进化策略的α-截集优化算法进行模糊分析,获得模糊结果的集合,最终通过证据理论对模糊结果集合进行后处理,获得边界概率累积分布。通过VBA自定义函数,有机结合基于Excel的蒙特卡罗模拟工具Crystal Ball(CB)和Fortran模糊分析库,从而实现模型中同时含模糊和随机参数的不确定分析。计算结果表明该方法能够充分利用已有成熟软件具有高效性和稳定性的特点,有效结合随机分析和模糊分析,实现混合计算,从参数到结果的不确定性传递过程中人工误差较少。In the case of both fuzzy and random parameters occur together,combining Monte Carlo random sampling of probability distribution functions with fuzzy possibility distribution of fuzzy parameter,the fuzzy results set was obtained, by using-level optimization method with modified evolution strategy （MES）. The upper and lower probability distributions were derived from post-processing the fuzzy results set based on evidence theory. To solve the uncertainty analysis under joint fuzzy and random uncertainty,we combined the Monte Carlo simulation software Crystal Ball （CB） which based on the Microsoft Excel with the Fuzzy Analysis Library which was written in Fortran by developing the user-defined function in VBA. The results show that：This method makes use of the high efficiency and stability of the mature software which were independently used in fuzzy analysis and random simulation ,and combines them to implement the hybrid algorithm; there are lower artificial errors when propagating uncertainty involving imprecision and randomness.

关 键 词：模糊 随机 α-截集优化 混合算法 程序实现 

分 类 号：TU435[建筑科学—岩土工程]