区域洪水灾害风险评估体系(Ⅱ)——模型与应用  

Risk assessment system for regional flood disaster(Ⅱ):model and application

作　　者：蒋卫国[1,2] 李京[1,2] 武建军[1,2] 邓磊[1] 宫阿都[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2008年第6期105-109,共5页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40701172);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20070027018);国际科技合作计划项目(2007DFA20640);水沙科学与水灾害防治湖南省重点实验室(长沙理工大学)开放基金资助项目

摘　　要：准确了解区域洪水灾害风险分布状况及规律,对于洪水灾害预警与管理具有重要意义。首先分析了模糊综合评估法的原理,以GIS空间技术为手段,建立了基于GIS的洪水灾害风险评估模型。然后以马来西亚洪水灾害风险评估应用为例,剖析了洪水灾害风险模糊评估的方法及过程,利用该模型计算出洪水灾害风险并制作了洪水灾害风险等级图和风险指数图。结果表明,该模型对于评价洪水灾害风险是行之有效的。Accurately comprehending the condition and rule of flood disaster risk is of great importance for early warning and management of flood disaster. In this paper, firstly the fuzzy method was analyzed. Then the model of flood disaster risk assessment was built based on GIS and fuzzy method. In the case of flood disaster risk assessment, the application process was analyzed. Finally the risk of flood disaster is calculated using the model. The result of the example shows that this model is very effective in evaluation of flood disaster risk.

关 键 词：洪水灾害 风险评估 模型 应用 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]