不同模式分辨率和物理过程方案对贵州降水影响的对比试验  

Comparison Experiments of Different Resolutions and Physical Parameterization Schemes in Guizhou Precipitation

作　　者：伍红雨[1] 陈静[2] 

机构地区：[1]贵州省山地环境气候研究所贵州省山地气候与资源重点实验室,贵州贵阳550002 [2]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,四川成都610071

出　　处：《高原气象》2008年第6期1295-1306,共12页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：黔科合外G字(2007)400104号;黔科合重大专项(2006)6034号;中国气象局项目"西南地区滑坡和泥石流灾害气象监测预警业务服务系统"共同资助

摘　　要：利用MM5中尺度数值模式,在20,15和10 km模式分辨率下,采用相同的方案对贵州两次大暴雨过程进行数值模拟试验。然后选用KUO、GRELL、KAIN-FRITSCH和BETTS-MILLER(以下简称KU、GR、KF和BM)4种对流参数化方案,分别在MRF和Blackadar 2种边界层参数化方案下,对贵州汛期16个降水个例进行数值模拟试验,对模拟结果进行对比分析并与实况资料进行比较,结果表明:预报的降水落区对参数化方案敏感。随着分辨率的提高,降水分布与实况更接近。MM5模式的这4种积云参数化方案对环流的模拟较好,但模拟降水的效果有差别:对50 mm以下的降水,GR方案的预报效果较好,KF方案则较差;对50 mm以上的降水,BM、KF方案的预报效果一般较好;选择MRF或Blackadar的边界层参数化方案对降水预报效果区别不大。选择BM或KF积云对流参数化方案、混合相显式水汽方案、MRF边界层参数化方案和云辐射方案的组合,取得了优于其他组合的预报结果。The numerical simulation experiments are made with same schemes under three kinds of model horizontal resolutions（20, 15 and 10 kin） to simulate the two heavy rainstorm processes of Guizhou using the mesoscale model MM5. The numerical simulation experiments use the cumulus parameterization schemes（KUO, GRELL, KAIN--FRITSCH N BETTS--MILLER, as KU, GR, KF and BM）, which is combined with MRF and Blackadar boundary layer＇s parameterization schemes, to simulate 16 precipitation cases in Guizhou flood season. Comparisons among the experiments and analyses the observations indicate that the location of rainfall is sensitive to the parameterization schemes. The higher the model resolution is, the closer the simulations of rainfall distributions to the truth are. The circulation characteristics on four various cumulus parameterization schemes, the simulation results are nearly the same. But the simulated rainfall effects are different： When rainfall is smaller than 50 mm, the predicting effect of GR scheme is better and KF scheme is not better; when rainfall is larger than 50 mm, the predicting effect of BM or KF scheme is better. The predicting differences between MRF or Blackadar boundary layer＇s parameterization schemes is small. Choosing combinational schemes with BM or KF cumulus parameterization, mixed phase explicit moisture schemes, MRF planetary boundary layer parameterization and cloud radiation parameterization are superior to the others for predicting Guizhou rainstorm.

关 键 词：贵州降水 MM5模式 水平分辨率 参数化方案 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]