西藏前冬环流及地温特征与夏季旱涝关系  

Relation between Both the Preceding-Winter 500hPa Circulation and Underground Temperature and Summer Drought/Flood in Tibet

作　　者：普布卓玛 唐叔乙 卓嘎[2] 

机构地区：[1]西藏自治区气象台,西藏拉萨850000 [2]西藏高原大气环境科学研究所,西藏拉萨850000

出　　处：《高原气象》2008年第6期1428-1431,共4页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：西藏旱涝气候预测项目资助

摘　　要：选取西藏地区各区域内严重干旱年和严重洪涝年各5年，分析了北半球500hPa高度距平场同期和前冬环流，同时对旱涝年前冬地温距平与当年夏季旱涝的关系也进行了相关分析。结果表明，干旱年和洪涝年前冬（12月～2月）环流距平分布状况和地温距平有明显差异，这些不同特征是预测西藏夏季旱涝的信号和重要因子。夏季伊朗高压位置偏北或偏南，西太平洋高压脊线和西脊点位置都有一定的指示意义。同时，也可根据2月500hPa高度场正、负距平区位置特点，预测了西藏主要农业区沿雅鲁藏布江一线雨季偏迟或偏早。The five severe drought/flood years in Tibet are selected, the relation between both the 500 hPa height departure field in Euroasia continent in preceding-winter and underground temperature and summer drought and flood is analyzed. It is found that there is obvious difference between the circulation departure distribution and underground temperature in preceding winter （ from December to February） in the drought and flood years. These difference features are to predict the signals or important factors of drought and flood of summer in Tibet. Meanwhile, the early and later rainy seasons along the Yarlung Zangbo River of Tibet can be predicted on the basis of the location feature of positive and negative departures of 500 hPa heights in February.

关 键 词：西藏 旱涝 距平场 地温 环流特征 

分 类 号：P423.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]