基于不完全语言信息的航天研制项目风险决策  

Risk decision for the development of the aerospace project based on the incomplete linguistic information

作　　者：杨亚琴[1] 周荣喜[2] 邱菀华[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100191 [2]北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京100029

出　　处：《北京航空航天大学学报》2008年第12期1433-1436,共4页Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70701003)

摘　　要：针对航天研制项目风险管理的复杂性,提出了一种基于现代多属性语言决策方法的航天研制项目风险评价模型.给出了不完全语言信息下基于不确定扩展有序加权平均算子的决策方法.将项目风险标度进行了拓展,一方面使得风险度量更加准确;另一方面能够很好地与决策模型中的语言信息合理匹配.以航天研制项目风险决策为例说明了该方法的实用性和有效性,为项目风险评价提供了一种新思路.For the complexity of aerospace project development, its risk evaluating model was proposed on the basis of modern multiple attribute linguistic decision method. The method of decision based on uncertain extended ordered weighed averaging （UEOWA） operator was given under incomplete linguistic information. The scale of risk measure was extended, on the one hand which can measure accurately the risk, on the other hand which can match with linguistic information of decision model in reason. The example of risk decision for aerospace project development was presented to show the feasibility and effectiveness of this method. It can offer a new method for the evaluation of project risk.

关 键 词：风险决策 不完全语言信息 航天研制项目 不确定扩展有序加权平均算子 

分 类 号：TH166[机械工程—机械制造及自动化]