汶川地震前南北地震带中北段地形变变化特征的研究  

On the Characteristics of Ground Deformation Anomalies in the Middle and Northern Part of the South-North Seismic Belt prior to the Wenchaun Earthquake

作　　者：牛安福[1] 张凌空[1] 闫伟[1] 贾晓东[2] 李晓帆[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震台网中心,北京100045 [2]辽宁省地震局,辽宁沈阳110031

出　　处：《地震》2009年第1期100-107,共8页Earthquake

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划基金(2006BAC01B02-02-01);国家地震联合基金(A07147)资助

摘　　要：2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震是我国自建国以来灾难最为严重的一次强地震。文中讨论了汶川地震前震源附近与外围地区潮汐形变变化及龙门山地震带、鲜水河地震带和祁连山地震带断层活动的特点。分析结果表明:震前沿龙门山地震带分布的雅安、汶川及茂县观测台地倾斜测项在2006年初发生转折,由单向东倾或西倾转向平稳,临震前无明显变化;龙门山断裂带及附近地区有5个断层水准观测场地,除耿达场地观测到巨幅变化外,其他场地震前未观测到突出的前兆性变化。震源外围龙灯坝断层蠕变仪(Δ=220 km)震前观测到持续时间在3个月左右的突变性异常,但依据突变持续时间较难估计相应地震为8级。而离震中较远的祁连山地震带中西段,震前也有巨大的断层水准变化,其与汶川地震的关系值得讨论。This paper analyzes the characteristics of observed ground tilts and strains near and around the Wenchuan earthquake rupture zone, and of the measured changes of Longmenshan, Xianshuihe and Qilian seismic belts. The observed phenomenon demonstrated that the ground tilt velocities at Ya＇an, Wenchuan and Maoxian sites turned abruptely in the beginning of 2006, and then decreased steadily up to the occurrence of Wenchuan earthquake. The five sites for cross fault measurement on the Longmenshan seismic belt, the great change was only observed on Gengda site, but the change maybe caused mainly by the new buildings near the site. A rapid change durated for three months was observed by the fault creep-meter at the Longdengba site 220 km away from the epicenter, which gives us information for an M6.5 earthquake in three to four months after the rapid change ended. Great changes were also observed using fault leveling on the Qilian seismic belt, the question if they were related to the Wenchuan earthquake is to be studied.

关 键 词：汶川地震 地倾斜 断层活动 地震预测 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]