汶川8.0级地震的一些启示  

Some Reflections on the 12 May,2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

作　　者：张肇诚[1] 张炜[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京100036

出　　处：《地震》2009年第1期193-202,共10页Earthquake

摘　　要：文章分析了地震能否预报争议的历史、背景及其影响,主张地震预报要知难而进,要坚持监测、预报和科研这一中心工作。地震预报探索就是一部不断在反思和总结中前进的历史。文中讨论了1975年海城7.3级、1976年唐山7.8级、1995年孟连西7.3级和2001年昆仑山口西8.1级等地震的启示、2008年汶川8.0级地震的意义及科学继承与发展问题。作者提出了地震大形势的判断、地震前兆、观测资料分析与评价等在汶川地震科学总结中要思考的重点问题,建议做好汶川地震的科学总结、制定新一代地震预报发展规划、部署新一代观测台网、完善地震监测预报工作体制等,进而开创我国地震工作的新局面。The paper reviews historic debates on the predictability of earthquakes and their background and influences. It is advocated that searches for earthquake predication should advance despite of all difficulties and the key work must focus on monitoring, prediction and scientific research. The history of earthquake prediction has been a continuous process of reflection and learning from the past experiences. The paper discusses the lessons from the 1975 Haicheng MT. 3 earthquake, the 1976 Tangshan M7. 8 earthquake, the 1995 western Menglian M7.3 earthquake, and the 2001 Kunlunshan MS. 1 earthquake. The implications of the 2008 Wenchuan MS. 0 earthquake and issues related to scientific inheritance and development are examined. Several important issues that should be focused in the scientific reflection on the Wenchuan earthquake were pointed out. These include the study and judgment of future general development of earthquake activities as well as earthquake precursors and observation data analyses and evaluations. The author also suggests that a thorough scientific review on the Wencbuan earthquake should be carried out, a new plan of researches on earthquake prediction should be charted, a new generation observation network should be established, and the working system for earthquake monitoring and prediction should be improved in order to open up a new chapter of earthquake prediction in China.

关 键 词：汶川地震 反思 科学总结 观测 规划 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]