山东省产业结构变动对区域经济增长贡献的演变  

THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONTRIBUTION OF INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE CHANGE TO REGIONAL ECONOMICAL GROWTH IN SHANDONG PROVINCE

作　　者：田红[1] 刘兆德[2] 陈素青[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学中国人口资源.环境编辑部,中国山东济南250014 [2]曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院,中国山东曲阜273165

出　　处：《经济地理》2009年第1期49-53,共5页Economic Geography

基　　金：中国博士后基金:城市群形成和发展演化的动力机制及区域经济效应研究(编号:20060993095);山东省社科重点项目:山东省与东部沿海发达省份比较研究(编号:06BJJ021)联合资助

摘　　要：产业结构变动是影响区域经济增长的重要因素。采用多部门经济模型和基于传统统计角度的GDP产业结构贡献度测算方法,分析1953-2004年山东省产业结构变动对经济增长的贡献。研究表明,产业结构变动对区域经济增长的贡献率逐步下降,大体上服从Growth函数,具有长短波复合变动规律,产业结构调整存在着阶段性和周期性特点。产业结构变动对区域经济增长的贡献在减少,经济增长的稳定性在增加,人为调整产业结构和市场与经济自身调节产业结构具有不同的效用和特点。产业结构变动对区域经济增长贡献的区域差异显著。Industrial structure is an important factor that influences the regional economic growth .Using the model of multiple industries and the calculation method which is based on contribution degree of industrial structure, the paper, analyzes the contribution of industrial structure change to economic growth form 1953-2004 in Shandong Province and fmds that the contribution values decreases gradually with the time and the rule is subjected to growth function. It also has the rule of compound change of a long wave and a short wave .The adjustment of industrial structure is characterized by different stages and periods .While the contribution of industrial structure to the growth of regional economy is decreasing ,the stability of economy is increasing .There are different effects and characteristics between the industrial structure through artificial adjustments and that through automatic adjustments of economy. The regional difference of the contribution of industrial structure change to regional economical growth is obviously.

关 键 词：产业结构变动 经济增长 贡献 山东省 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]