用灰色自回归模型预测稻瘟病  

Forecasting Rice Blast by Using GAR Model

作　　者：华菊林[1] 李湘民[1] 王昌明[1] 林姗姗[1] 宋爱芝 邓敏军[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西省农业科学院植保研究所

出　　处：《江西农业学报》1998年第1期45-50,共6页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

摘　　要：灰色自回归模型（ＧＡＲ）是将灰色系统模型（ＧＭ）与自回归模型（ＡＲ）结合起来的一类预测模型，它弥补了ＧＭ与ＡＲ的不足。本文叙述了该模型的建模方法，建立了江西省临川县１９６２～１９８７年稻瘟病年发病程度的ＧＡＲ模型，检验合格后，对该县的稻瘟病发生程度进行了多年预测（１９８８～１９９２）。运用模糊集合隶属函数对这几年的预测准确性进行评定，结果表明预测较为准确。文末还就ＧＡＲ模型用于稻瘟病预测的条件和特点进行了讨论。A new forecasting modelGAR composed of GM and AR was established in this paper. With this model, a fiveyear (1988～1992) forecasting of rice blast (Pyricularia oryzae Cav.) in Linchuan County was made. Evaluated the accuracy of these years' forecasting by using FUZZY function, the result showed that the model was qualified to forecast rice blast. In addition, the conditions and features of forecasting rice blast by using GAR model was discussed.

关 键 词：灰色自回归模型 预测 稻瘟病 水稻 

分 类 号：S435.111.4[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]