联合效用理论与风险量化的防波堤决策模型研究  

Study on the Decision-making Model for Breakwater Based on the Combination of Utility Theory and Risk Quantification

作　　者：蒋学炼[1,2] 李炎保[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072 [2]天津城市建设学院天津市软土特性与工程环境重点实验室,天津300384

出　　处：《海洋通报》2009年第1期65-74,共10页Marine Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50779045)

摘　　要：回顾和总结了当前防波堤项目的决策模型,介绍了效用理论的起源、发展和理论基础,提出了效用理论结合防波堤风险量化方法的新型风险决策模型。以某直立式防波堤的优化设计为例,将防波堤滑移失效概率、防波堤尺度、生命周期内的风险损失和预期收益、决策者风险态度等量化指标纳入决策系统,比较了费用最小化、费用-收益权衡和效用三种决策模型,探讨了优化设计重现期的确定。结果表明,决策者的风险态度将极大地影响防波堤方案的选择,而费用-收益模型实质上是效用模型的一种特殊情况,这凸显了效用模型的包容性和合理性。This paper reviewed the existing risk-based decision-making models and proposed a new decision method for breakwater on the basis of the combination of utility theory and risk evaluation. In the third section, an design case of vertical breakwater was provided to derive the optimal return periods based on various decision models, in which some quantified variables, such as the failure probabilities of sliding, the cross sections of breakwater, the expected benefits or losses over the lifetime of breakwater and the risk preferences of decision-maker, are brought into the decision framework. The results indicated that the optimal return period of wave height was largely determined by the risk preferences of decision-maker. In addition, the cost-benefit model is essentially a special case of the utility model, which implies that the utility-based model is a more general form for breakwater decision-making.

关 键 词：效用 风险量化 防波堤 多属性决策 风险厌恶 优化重现期 

分 类 号：P753[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]