从风险认知到风险数量化分类  

Risk Perception Quantification with the Application to Analysis of Risk Classification

作　　者：李宁[1] 张鹏[1] 胡爱军[1,2] 刘雪琴[1] 崔维佳[1] 孟志强[1] 史培军[1] 

机构地区：[1]民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京师范大学 [2]湖南省气象局,北京100875

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2009年第1期42-48,共7页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"沙尘暴源地下垫面沙尘致灾因子脆弱性评估及风险贡献"(编号:40771008);"十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目"综合风险防范关键技术研究与示范--综合风险分类与评价技术"(编号:2006BAD20B01)资助

摘　　要：伴随着社会经济和科技的发展,对风险问题的研究成为风险管理的重要一环,风险分类是进行风险保险、风险管理以及建立风险信息数据库的基础。拟从风险认知的角度,通过人们目前比较关注的41种风险构建了风险0-1判断矩阵,用Hayashi数量化理论Ⅲ,通过Matlab软件,对构建的0-1风险矩阵进行判断计算,得到风险分类图。通过验证,用Hayashi数量化理论Ⅲ对风险的聚类可以取得很好的类别区分效果,类内的风险种类组合与现有的几种政策管理分类框架中的风险类别组合吻合;该方法为风险的数值分类提供了新的思路。With the development of societal economy and technology, a lot of uncertainty risks become one of the important factors which disturb the human life. Thus, the study of risk problem has become an important part of the risk management. Risk classification is the basis of risk insurance, risk management, and the establishment of risk information database. The objective of this paper is to classify the risk affecting human life from the respective of risk perception. It builds the 0-1 judgment matrix by means of analysis of the current 41 kinds and 6 categories of risks that people are concerned about. Using the Hayashi＇ qualification theory m, through the Maflab software, to judge the structure of 0-1 risk matrix is judged and calculated to gain the scatter diagram of different risks. By the transform study of the risk scatter diagram we find that clustering the risk through Hayashi＇ qualification theory IU can achieve good results. The risk cluster is objective; the classification result is not affected by transform of the risk matrix in different risk kind and category.

关 键 词：Hayashi数量化理论Ⅲ 风险分类 风险认知 风险管理 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]