中国出口增长之谜?——基于投入产出表的经验分析  

The Puzzle of China Export Growth——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Input-output Table

作　　者：吴宏[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济发展研究中心 [2]浙江财经学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2008年第12期73-78,共6页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(项目号:07AJL016);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(项目号:07JJD790142);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(项目号:05JC790111)的大力资助

摘　　要：进入21世纪中国出口高速增长成为中国贸易和经济发展的显著特征,并带来一系列新情况和新问题,究其原因在于对此次增长的动力源认识不清。本文运用投入产出模型研究了中国出口增长的来源,发现推动中国贸易增长的是出口中非本国要素含量的大幅度提高,并认为在这种新型分工模式下,传统的贸易紧缩政策的效力有限,而且还发现目前的中国出口产业高度依赖非本国要素,从而可能给中国贸易发展和经济发展带来极大的不稳定性,必须将发展中国外贸产业的自生能力作为贸易发展政策的重要目标。In the 21st century,the rapid export growth in China has been the noticeable character of trade and economic development in China,bringing about a series of new situations and problems,which can be laid down to the obscure understanding of the engine for this growth. The paper applies input-output model to study the source for Chinese export growth,finds out that the impetus for Chinese trade growth is the rapid growth of non-native element components in the export and maintains that in this new model of labor division,the effects of traditional trade contractive policy are very limited. In addition,the paper thinks that the high-dependence of Chinese export on non-native elements is likely to cause great instability to trade and economic development in China; therefore,the key target for trade development policies is to develop the self-cultivation capability of the Chinese foreign trade sector.

关 键 词：出口增长 本国含量 投入产出 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]