Alternative risk measure for decision-making under uncertainty in water management  

作　　者：Yueping Xu Yeou-Koung Tung Jia Li Shaofeng Niu 

机构地区：[1]Department of Civil Engineering, Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310028, China [2]Department of Civil Engineering, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China

出　　处：《Progress in Natural Science:Materials International》2009年第1期115-119,共5页自然科学进展·国际材料（英文版）

基　　金：supported by Post-Doctoral Fellowship Matching Fund of Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Grant No.HIA04/05.EG02)

摘　　要：Taking into account uncertainties in water management remains a challenge due to social,economic and environmental changes.Often,uncertainty creates difficulty in ranking or comparing multiple water management options,possibly leading to a wrong decision.In this paper,an alternative risk measure is proposed to facilitate the ranking or comparison of water management options under uncertainty by using the concepts of conditional expected loss and partial mean.This measure has the advantages of being more intuitive,general and could relate to many other measures of risk in the literature.The application of the risk measure is demonstrated through a case study for the evaluation of flood mitigation projects.The results show that the new measure is applicable to a general decision-making process under uncertainty.Taking into account uncertainties in water management remains a challenge due to social, economic and environmental changes. Often, uncertainty creates difficulty in ranking or comparing multiple water management options, possibly leading to a wrong decision. In this paper, an alternative risk measure is proposed to facilitate the ranking or comparison of water management options under uncertainty by using the concepts of conditional expected loss and partial mean. This measure has the advantages of being more intuitive, general and could relate to many other measures of risk in the literature. The application of the risk measure is demonstrated through a case study for the evaluation of flood mitigation projects. The results show that the new measure is applicable to a general decisionmaking process under uncertainty.

关 键 词：Decision-making under uncertainty Conditional expected loss Partial mean Water management Risk measure 

分 类 号：X3[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X703