河南省猪肉价格变化规律及其预测研究  

Study on the Change Rule and Forecast of Pork Price in Henan Province

作　　者：盛建华[1] 程功鹏[1] 金喜新[2] 任广智[1] 高腾云[1] 李晓峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学牧医工程学院,河南郑州450002 [2]河南省畜牧局,河南郑州450002

出　　处：《河南农业大学学报》2008年第6期672-676,共5页Journal of Henan Agricultural University

基　　金：河南省自然科学基金项目(30571346)

摘　　要：分析了2000年以来河南省猪肉价格变化规律，构建了时间序列复合预测模型，并对2008--2010年价格发展变化进行了预测和评析．结果表明，猪肉价格呈周期性循环波动长期上涨趋势；循环周期时长14～15个季度，周期内上涨与下跌历时各约7个季度；2007年末比2000年初上涨了121．6％，年均递增10．8％，然上涨速率不平衡；所建各模型均可很好地描述和预测猪肉价格系统变化过程（R^2≥0．905），且分别适用于不同的价格发展形势及调控目标与策略；2010年末猪肉价格将比2007年末实际价格上涨37．6％～79．2％，年均递增11．2％-21．5％；2008年猪肉价格将高位小幅振荡，至2009年2季度前后抵周期性谷底．The change rule of pork price in Henan provine from 2000 was analysed, and the forecast models were constructed by the rule, with which the pork price during 2008 to 2010 were forecasted and discussed. The results showed that the pork price fluctuated upward in a circle of 14 - 15 quarters, in half of which the price was on rise. The price at the and of 2007 rose by 121.6% compocred with that in early 2000 （at an average yearly increase rate of 10.8% ） , but increase rate was not in balance. And the models were applicable to describe and forecaste the change rule of the pork price （R^2 ≥ 0. 905 ）. Moreover, it was suitable to different price situations and requests for control targets and strategies, respectively. The forecast rusults showed that pork prices by the end of 2010 would be 37.6% - 79.2% higher than those at the end of 2007 （at an average yearly increase rate of 11.2% -21.5% ） , but in 2008 it might go down slightly to the cyclical trough by the second quarter of 2009.

关 键 词：猪肉价格 变化规律 预测模型 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]