基于动态模拟的发电市场情景分析与机制研究  

The mechanism research and case study of electricity generation markets based on dynamic simulation

作　　者：刘国跃[1,2] 肖霖[3] 曾鸣[3] 徐鸿[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电站设备状态监测与控制教育部重点实验室,北京102206 [2]华能国际电力股份有限公司,北京100031 [3]华北电力大学工商管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2008年第24期8-13,共6页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70671041)

摘　　要：发电容量投资的周期性波动不仅对于电力工业意味着巨大的浪费,影响到输电项目的扩容规划和投资评价,甚至还可能会危及系统的供电可靠性。通过建立发电侧市场的动态模拟模型,选取发电侧市场的多种典型情景研究分析了单一能量机制和容量费用机制下发电投资和市场供需的周期性波动问题。进一步,以容量费用机制为例分析并认为,对于容量电价应当由政府还是市场制定的问题,其核心在于政府或市场能否完全或者在一定程度上替代对方,引导充裕的发电投资和稳定的市场供需。The periodic fluctuation of generation investment brings gigantic cost to the electricity sector, complicates the transmission expansion planning and investment evaluation, and poses a threat to power system reliability. This paper builds a dynamic simulation model of generation capacity investment, and applies it to several cases to analyze the periodic fluctuation problem under mechanisms of energy-only market and capacity payment. Furthermore, this paper chooses the capacity payment mechanism as an example, and proves that whether the capacity price be made purely by market or government depends on the extent to which one could substitute the other in assuring generation investment adequacy and market capacity margin.

关 键 词：发电投资 动态模拟 单一能量机制 容量费用机制 

分 类 号：F407.61[经济管理—产业经济] F224