人口、经济对中国城市化的影响分析  

An Analysis of the Impact of Population and Economy on China's Urbanization

作　　者：张锦宗[1] 朱瑜馨[1] 周杰[2] 

机构地区：[1]聊城大学环境与规划学院,山东聊城252059 [2]北京师范大学地理与遥感学院,北京100875

出　　处：《人口与经济》2009年第1期1-4,10,共5页Population & Economics

基　　金：山东省社会科学规划研究项目(05BJZ56);聊城大学青年基金项目(X061012)

摘　　要：利用相关年份的统计数据,分析了人口增长、经济增长与城市化的关系。利用合理假设,还原了理想人口控制之下我国城市化的理想效果和适当经济控制之下我国城市化的较好效果。结果表明:我国城市化进程与经济发展的基本趋势是一致的;城市化水平低下源于人口的高速增长和经济增长缺乏连续性;等值的人口增长率对我国城市化水平的限制作用大于等值的经济增长率的推动作用;人口的过快增长使劳动力供给长期大于需求和人口数量过大的状况是导致表象的城市化与工业化"背离"发展的一个重要因素。Based on statistical data of relevant years, the paper analyses the relations among population growth, economic growth and urbanization, and using reasonable hypotheses, it puts forward the ideal effect of urbanization under ideal population control and the satisfactory effect under proper economic control. The result shows that： the progress of China＇s urbanization is in accordance with the basic trend of its economic development ; the low level of urbanization stems form the lack of continuity between the fast population growth and economic growth; the restriction posed on urbanization by population growth rate is larger then the promotion brought by tantamount economic growth rate; the long term oversupply of labor due to fast population growth is an important factor for the diverge development between urbanization and industrialization.

关 键 词：城市化 人口增长 经济增长 

分 类 号：F290[经济管理—国民经济]