疟疾监测效果评价的新方法──综合指标的建立及其应用  

A NEW METHOD FOR EVALUATING MALARIA SURVEILLANCE EFFECTIVENESSESTABLISHMENT AND APPLICATION OF AN INDEX SYSTEM

作　　者：周水森[1] 汤林华[1] 钱会霖[1] 郑香[1] 罗曼珍[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国预防医学科学院寄生虫病研究所

出　　处：《中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志》1998年第2期97-100,共4页Chinese Journal of Parasitology and Parasitic Diseases

摘　　要：目的：建立评价疟疾监测效果的综合指标。方法：用德尔菲（Ｄｅｌｐｈｉ）法由专家对常用效果评价指标进行筛选，以确定主要效果评价指标的权重，进而建立疟疾监测效果指数的计算式。结果：通过专家咨询方式确定主要效果指标的权重（Ｗ），分别为：当地感染的发病率为０．３６、病人检出比例为０．３１和输入继发病例／输入病例为０．３３。得出疟疾监测效果指数（ＭＳＥＩ）＝Σｎｉ＝１Ｘｉ·Ｗｉ。按此式对甲、乙两种方案监测试点进行费用－效果分析，计算所得的得分分别为４８．５６和４５．９３，以致甲方案每取得１分约需乙方案所需费用的４倍。结论：此疟疾监测效果指数较为实际地反映疟疾监测方案的总体效果，适合于不同监测方案费用－效果评价。AIM: To establish a comprehensive index system which is suitable for evaluating the effectiveness of malaria surveillance schemes .METHODS: Delphi method was used to screen the existed effectiveness evaluation indices by experts to determine key indices and weighted coefficients. RESULTS: Three indices, i.e. autochthonous incidence, ratio of cases detected (ROCD) and ratio of introduced/imported cases were selected. Their weighted coefficients were 0 36, 0 31 and 0 33, respectively. An index system named the malaria surveillance effectiveness index (MSEI) was built up and formulated as Σni=1Xi·Wi which was applied to study cost effectiveness of the two malaria surveillance schemes (A and B). According to the formula, the MSEIs in the study areas using the schemes A and B were 48 56 and 45 93, respectively. However, the cost for increasing a score of MSEI by implementing the scheme A was four times as high as that by implementing the scheme B. CONCLUSION: The MSEI is practicable for evaluating the overall effectiveness of malaria surveillance schemes,especially in the cost effectiveness analysis and health economic evaluation.

关 键 词：德尔菲法 疟疾 监测效果指数 费用效果分析 

分 类 号：R531.301[医药卫生—内科学]