军用飞机研制风险的模糊综合评价方法  

A Fuzzy-Based Assessment Method for Military Aircraft Development Risk

作　　者：李寿安[1] 宋笔锋[1] 王庆锋[2] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学航空学院,西安710072 [2]中国人民解放军94106部队,西安710614

出　　处：《电光与控制》2009年第2期22-25,41,共5页Electronics Optics & Control

基　　金：全国优秀博士论文专项基金资助项目(200051)

摘　　要：针对风险评价中信息的模糊性和不确定性,提出了军用飞机研制风险的模糊综合评价方法。首先,对风险评价的一般方法进行分析;然后,确定了军用飞机研制的风险源因素和风险后果因素,采用模糊集表示风险源因素对研制失败的影响和风险后果因素的大小,并对各个因素进行模糊评价;最后,根据各个因素的模糊评价矩阵及其权重,采用模糊综合评价方法获得研制风险的失败概率和失败后果,由失败概率和失败后果可得到研制风险的大小。算例表明,模糊综合评价方法可将风险评价中的模糊和不确定信息定量化处理,能够有效地对军用飞机的研制风险进行评价。Considering the fuzziness and uncertainty of the information in risk assessment, a fuzzy-based assessment method is proposed to assess the development risk of the military aircraft. Firstly, the general method for risk assessment is analyzed. Secondly, the source factors and the consequence factors for the military aircraft development risk are determined and described by using fuzzy sets, and each factor is evaluated by the fuzzy theory. In the end, according to the fuzzy evaluation matrix and the weighting coefficient of each factor, the failure probability and the failure consequence for the development risk are evaluated by the fuzzy-based assessment method, and the development risk value is obtained from the failure probability and the failure consequence. It is illustrated that the fuzzy-based assessment method can quantify the fuzzy and uncertain information in risk assessment, and can assess the development risk for the military aircraft effectively.

关 键 词：研制风险 模糊 评价 失败概率 失败后果 军用飞机 

分 类 号：V271.4[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计] TJ760[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]