饮食业油烟道火灾的模糊事件树分析  

Fuzzy event tree analysis of cooking fume duct fire accident

作　　者：谢正文[1,2] 吴超[1] 梁晓瑜[2] 袁巧[2] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南长沙410083 [2]中国计量学院安全与环保研究所,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《火灾科学》2009年第1期10-14,共5页Fire Safety Science

基　　金：浙江省科技计划项目(编号:2007C23063)

摘　　要：对饮食业油烟道火灾事故进行事件树分析时,历史数据的缺乏常常导致无法进行事件序列的定量计算。针对这一问题,利用专家对事故的模糊评判,引入模糊事件树进行定量计算研究。在模糊集理论的基础上,结合德尔菲法和判断矩阵法,将模糊性语言转换为三角模糊数或梯形模糊数,应用模糊数截集以及模糊数清晰化方法,对后果事件发生概率进行计算。研究表明,饮食业油烟道火灾事故概率的模糊事件树分析是切实可行的,有助对饮食业油烟道火灾的认识、预防和扑救工作。Due to lack of historical data, itg impossible to calculate the possibilities of event sequences of cooking fume duct fire accident quantitatively. According to fuzzy evaluation of some experts, the fuzzy event tree was introduced in this paper to conduct quantitative calculation. Based on the fuzzy set theory, combing Delphi method and judging matrix method, the verbal statements were converted to triangular fuzzy numbers or trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. The probability of consequence was evaluated by cut and ranking method of fuzzy numbers. It was shown that the proposed method is helpful in practice for the prevention of cooking fume duct fire.

关 键 词：饮食业油烟道火灾 模糊集 事件树分析 事故分析 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]