供需不确定性、市场竞争与现金持有--来自中国上市公司的经验证据  

Demand and Supply Uncertainty,Competition and Cash Holdings——Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms

作　　者：连玉君[1] 常亮[1] 苏治[2] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学岭南学院,广州510275 [2]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《南方经济》2009年第1期11-22,共12页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：中山大学文科青年教师科研基金项目(3171913)的资助

摘　　要：本文研究了市场供需不确定性对中国上市公司现金持有行为的影响。针对2000-2006年期间637家上市公司的经验研究表明,现金持有水平与市场供需不确定性负相关。这一关系在寡头竞争行业中最为显著,完全竞争行业次之,而垄断性行业最低。上述结果表明,中国上市公司的现金持有行为主要表现为短期逐利动机,并不支持国外学者普遍认为的预防性动机假说。这主要源于中国上市公司破产压力较低,使之过度追求短期资本回报,并没有将现金持有当作一种风险管理工具。This paper investigates the effects of demand and supply uncertainty on firms＇ cash holdings in China. The sample contains 637 Chinese listed firms range in 2000 -2006. The results show that, cash holdings are significantly negatively related to market uncertainty. Further, such a relationship is strongest in oligopoly industries, weaker in competitive industries, and weakest in monopoly industries. We conclude that Chinese firms seek too much for short-run profits using cash holding when the market uncertainty is large, We find no evidence to support the precautionary hypothesis as previous studies. It indicates that Chinese firms do not use cash holding as a tool to manage their risk.

关 键 词：现金持有 不确定 预防性动机 短期逐利动机 

分 类 号：F830.45[经济管理—金融学]