利率对我国黑市汇率影响的计量方法验证  

Authentication of Measurement Methods about Impact on the Interest Rate to China's Black Exchange Rate

作　　者：潘成夫[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东商学院金融学院,广东广州510320

出　　处：《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》2009年第1期35-39,共5页Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：近年来,随着我国国际收支形势的变化,我国外汇黑市汇率也发生了根本性的改变,对此进行深入研究并掌握黑市汇率的决定规律,将有助于更好利用黑市汇率所包含的信息。我国外汇黑市有独自的交易特点。研究表明,资产选择行为在外汇管制条件下仍然会对黑市汇率产生影响,但是这种影响由于管制原因而显得较为微弱,因此直接将黑市汇率作为均衡汇率的替代指标并不合适。Recent years,the black market exchange rate is declining with the changing of China＇s balance of payment situation. Basing on the careful study of black market＇s characteristics, applying cointegration analysis and find that the black market exchange rate,government exchange rate and interest rate has a stable long term relation. It＇s proved empirically that asset selection imposed effect even in the circumstance of capital control,though weak due to control,so it＇s inappropriate to take the black market as the substitute of equilibrium exchange rate directly.

关 键 词：外汇黑市 资本管制 黑市汇率 协整分析 

分 类 号：F830.73[经济管理—金融学]