黄河流域近40a积温动态变化研究  

Dynamic Variation of Accumulated Temperature Data in Recent 40 Years in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：刘勤[1,2] 严昌荣[1,2] 何文清[1,2] 杜建涛[1,2] 杨捷[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081 [2]农业部旱作节水农业重点开放实验室,北京100081 [3]上海市农业科学院环境科学研究所,上海201106

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2009年第1期147-153,共7页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家"十一五""863"课题"山西半干旱区现代节水农业技术集成基地"(2006AA100220);国家科技支撑计划课题"农田水分生产潜力及适度开发研究"(2006BAD29B01);国家基础性工作专项"中国农业气候资源数字化图集编制"项目资助

摘　　要：论文应用国家气象局提供的黄河流域109个气象站点40a的气象资料和中国数字高程模型,采用"回归分析计算+残差插值"法对黄河流域≥0℃和≥10℃的积温进行栅格化,得到10a尺度的栅格面,在ArcGIS中分别对≥0℃和≥10℃的积温栅格面进行空间分析和统计分析。结果表明:40a间≥0℃积温保持不变的面积占84.59%,积温段ⅰ(<2 000℃)升到积温段ⅱ(2 000～3 000℃)的为2.07%,积温段ⅱ升到ⅲ(3 000～4 000℃)的为3.14%,积温段ⅲ升到ⅳ(4 000～5 000℃)的为3.35%,积温段ⅳ升到ⅴ(>5 000℃)的为3.76%;40a间≥10℃积温保持不变面积占85.58%,积温段ⅱ升到ⅲ的为7.31%,积温段ⅰ升到ⅱ、积温段ⅲ升到ⅳ和积温段ⅳ升到ⅴ占的面积较小,分布不集中。总体来说黄河流域≥0℃、≥10℃年积温值呈升高的趋势,主要是受全球气候变暖的影响。Based on the meteorological data from 1961 to 2000, longitude and latitude of 109 meteorological stations in the Yellow River Basin （YRB） from China Meteorological Administration, and Chinese GTOPO30, rasterizing accumulated temperature data was conducted using ＂model based computation result plus spatialized residues＂. Spatial analysis and statisticalanalysis were carried out on eight ten-year-scale grid surfaces with accumulated temperature 〉0℃ and 〉10℃ with accumulated temperature in ArcGIS. The intensity and characteristic of dynamic variation with 〉 0℃ accumulated temperature in recent 40 years in the YRB indicated that the area unchanged was 84. 59%, the area of accumulated temperature segment ii rising from i was 2. 07%, the area of accumulated temperature segment iii rising from ii was 3. 14%, the area of accumulated temperature segment iv rising from iii was 2. 07%, and that the area of v rising from iv was 2. 07%. And the characteristic of dynamic variation of ≥10℃ accumulated temperature showed that the area remained unchanged was 85.58%, the area of accumulated temperature segment iii rising from ii was 7. 31%, and that the other variation area was small, whose distribution was sporadic. In a word, the annual increasing trend of the value of accumulated temperature was caused by global climate change.

关 键 词：积温 动态变化 GIS 黄河流域 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]