湖南省夏季大型水库人工增雨效果效益评估方法  

ON THE LARGE RESERVOIRS PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT EVALUATION METHOD IN HUNAN

作　　者：唐林[1,2] 蔡荣辉[3] 王治平[2] 张中波[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,湖南长沙410007 [2]湖南省人工影响天气办公室,湖南长沙410007 [3]湖南省气象科学研究所,湖南长沙410007

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2008年第A01期20-24,共5页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：湖南省气象局重点课题(200622)

摘　　要：2001～2007年，对湖南省境内4大水库分别开展了夏季人工增雨蓄水发电工程性试验。给出了7次试验的概况，并对所产生的作业效果和直接经济效益进行了初步评估。在有利天气形势下，实施有计划的云催化试验，针对夏季积云进行地面人工催化作业，对大型水库过境云水资源进行有效利用和开发，增大地面降雨量，增加入库地面径流，从而增加水库的水资源。为了客观科学地评价人工增雨的效果及其产生的效益，采用非随机区域控制回归方法和单门高炮人工增雨计算法对人工增雨效果进行检验与评估，并对水电产生的直接经济效益进行评估。分析表明，人工增雨的有效增雨率为24％，产流系数为0．3～0．5时，7次大型水库人工增雨作业期库区增水总量为5．67亿m^3；采用水电耗水率计算法对效益进行分析得出，增加发电量累计4002万kw·h，直接增电量效益为1605．51万元，试验的投入产出比平均为1：5．67。结果表明，“蓄水型”人工增雨不仅能增加水库的水资源，也能为水电部门产生较大的经济效益，是一项投入少、科技含量高、经济效益明显的工程技术。During 2001 to 2007, artificial rainfall experiments were operated to generate electricity in four reservoirs in Hunan. This article presented some surveys about seven experiments, initially evaluated its operation effect and directly economic benefit. Under the advantageous synoptic situation, operating designed surface cloud-seeding to summer cumulus, developing and utilizing effectively water source over large reservoirs could increase surface precipitation, surface flow and the volume of reservoir. In order to evaluate its effect and benefit impersonally and scientifically, non-random zone control regression method and single cannon artificial rainfall method was used to test and estimate it. The analysis showed, while cloud-seeding rate was 0. 24 and runoff rate was 0. 340.5 ,the increased water amount of seven times was 5.67 hundred million m^3. Using water consumption rate to generate electricity method to analyze benefit, it showed that the operation increased 40 million and 20 thousand kilowatt-hour or 16. 055 1 million yuan, namely its input-output ratio was 1：5.67. The result indicated rainfall enhancement for impounding water could not only increase the volume of reservoir, but also produce larger economic benefit for hydropower department, so rainfall enhancement was considered the little-input, high-enhancement and obvious-benefit project.

关 键 词：人工增雨 大型水库 效果效益评估 

分 类 号：P48[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TV622[水利工程—水利水电工程]