基于社会经济发展的溃坝洪水损失动态预测评价模型  

DYNAMIC FORECASTING EVALUATION MODEL OF FLOOD LOSS DUE TO DAM BREACH BASED ON SOCIOECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

作　　者：周克发[1] 李雷[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院大坝安全与管理研究所,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2008年第A01期145-148,共4页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAC14B07);水利部"948"项目(200739)

摘　　要：基于我国现阶段的社会经济发展状况,分析了社会经济发展对水库溃坝洪水损失变化的影响,将溃坝洪水损失变化与社会经济发展速度联系起来,在某个基准年的溃坝洪水损失评估值的基础上,构建了溃坝洪水损失动态预测评价模型,给出了反映随着社会经济发展速度而变化的生命损失、经济损失和社会与环境影响的计算公式,并对公式中各个参数的取值进行了初步的探讨,提出了参数的建议范围。模型能够有效地反映溃坝洪水损失随着社会经济发展而变化的动态时变特性,这为溃坝洪水损失的动态预测提供了一种新的尝试。以江西省长龙水库为例,应用水库所在地的社会经济发展速度指标,在2004年溃坝洪水损失评估值的基础上进行了溃坝洪水损失动态预测评价;计算结果表明,经济损失、社会与环境影响随着社会经济的快速发展而显著增加,生命损失则随之显著减少,验证了模型的适用性。Based on the current condition of socioeconomic development, this paper analyses the effect of socioeconomic development to the change of flood loss of dam breach, and connects the change of flood loss of dam breach with the velocity of socioeconomic development. Using the evaluation result of flood loss of dam breach in a base year,it builds a dynamic forecasting evaluation model of flood loss due to dam breach,puts forwards to three computational formulas of flood loss of dam breach（three types of loss,concluding loss of life,loss of economy and the effect to society and environment） which vary with the velocity of socioeconomic development, and preliminarily discusses how to determine the factors of the formulas, and gives their suggestted range. The new model that is a maiden attempt can effectly reflect the dynamic time-varying characteristics of flood loss of dam breach changing with socioeconomic development. According to the evaluating result of flood loss of dam breach in 2004, using the index of socioeconomic development, Changlong Reservoir in Jiangxi Province is used to do dynamic forecasting evaluation of flood loss of dam breach in order to validate the applicability of the model, the computational result indicates that loss of economy and the effect to society and environment distinctly increase with quick socioeconomic development while loss of life distinctly decreases.

关 键 词：社会经济发展 溃坝洪水损失 动态预测评价 

分 类 号：P641.74[天文地球—地质矿产勘探] F127[天文地球—地质学]