印度喜马拉雅中部阿拉克南达集水区的气候可变性、脆弱性和应对机制  

Climate Variability,Vulnerability,and Coping Mechanism in Alaknanda Catchment,Central Himalaya,India

作　　者：Kireet Kumar Sneh Joshi Varun Joshi 王胜（译） 

机构地区：[1]喜马拉雅环境和发展G．B．Pant研究所 [2]不详

出　　处：《AMBIO－人类环境杂志》2008年第4期272-277,313,共6页

摘　　要：本文对喜马拉雅中部阿拉克南达集水区进行了研究,发现了其降雨和温度格局的趋势。分析了过去10年的年降雨量、季风降雨及过去几十年的年平均温度。确定趋势使用的是非参数方法(曼肯德尔[Mann-Kendall]和森氏[Sen]方法)。曼肯德尔检验表明降雨下降而温度升高,在两个海拔区,这些趋势在95%的置信区间上呈统计学显著。森氏方法也证实了这个趋势。这个现象必须严肃对待,原因很简单,如果同样的趋势在未来持续下去的话,那么干旱的可能性将大为增加。集水区的人民已经察觉到气候变化的影响,在当地已经开发出了应对机制。A study was carried out to discover trends in the rainfall and temperature pattern of the Alaknanda catchment in the Central Himalaya.Data on the annual rainfall, monsoon rainfall for the last decade,and average annual temperatures over the last few decades were analyzed.Nonparametric methods (Mann-Kendall and Sen's method) were employed to identify trends.The Mann-Kendall test shows a decline in rainfall and rise in temperature,and these trends were found to be statistically significant at the 95% confidence level for both transects.Sen's method also confirms this trend.This aspect has to be considered seriously for the simple reason that if the same trend continues in the future,more chances of drought are expected.The impact of climate change has been well perceived by the people of the catchment,and a coping mechanism has been developed at the local level.

关 键 词：喜马拉雅 气候变化 集水区 机制 可变性 年平均温度 年降雨量 印度 

分 类 号：P542[天文地球—构造地质学] P467[天文地球—地质学]