再论土地对中国二三产业发展的贡献  

Re-discussion on Land Contribution to the Secondary and Tertiary Industries in China

作　　者：毛振强[1] 左玉强[1] 耿冲[1] 季宏伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国土地勘测规划院,北京100035

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2009年第1期19-24,共6页China Land Science

基　　金：国家软科学研究计划资助项目"土地宏观调控的作用机理与传导机制研究"(2007GXQ4B125);中国土地勘测规划院资助项目"开发区专题数据整合与数据库建设"(T080504-15)

摘　　要：研究目的:解决《土地投入对中国二三产业发展贡献的定量研究》一文中的部分遗留问题,探索土地要素对中国二三产业发展贡献的定量化评估方法。研究方法:CD模型和面板数据分析。研究结果:模型对样本数据的拟合(F检验)及各变量的回归系数(t检验)均达到极显著水平,初步解决了前文回归系数的检验问题。1996—2004年土地、资本和劳动力三要素对中国二三产业产值的弹性系数分别为0.823、0.211和0.174,对二三产业的贡献率分别为4.38%、30.74%和2.08%,三要素投入的不均衡是它们贡献率不均衡的主要原因。The purpose of the paper is to resolve remained problems in the paper of ＂Quantitative Analysis on Land Investment＇s Contribution to the Secondary ＆ Service Industry in China＂ and probe into the quantitative evaluation method on the contribution of land elements to the secondary industry ＆ service section in China. Methods employed include Cobb-Douglas function and panel data analysis. The results indicate that the adopted models and their coefficients all reached extreme significance level （F test and t test applied respectively）, which primarily resolved the problem of testing regression coefficients in the previous paper. The elasticities of land, capital and labor were 0.823, 0.211 and 0.174 respectively, which suggested unbalanced factor contribution of 4.38%, 30.74% and 2.08% to the output during 1996- 2004. It is concluded that the unbalanced contribution could be imputed to the unbalanced investment of the three adopted factors.

关 键 词：土地经济 贡献率 面板数据分析 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]