基于马尔柯夫模型的怒江流域中段植被动态变化预测  

Prediction of vegetations dynamic changes in central Nujiang watershed based on Markov process model

作　　者：李晖[1,2] 白杨[3] 杨树华[2,4] 朱雪[1] 赵凯[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南大学城市建设与管理学院,昆明650091 [2]云南大学生命科学学院,昆明650091 [3]中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,北京100085 [4]云南大学生态学与地植物学研究所,昆明650091

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2009年第2期371-376,共6页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50468004);云南大学青年骨干教师培养计划资助项目

摘　　要：运用GIS、RS和GPS技术,采用1994和2004年2个时期的TM影像建立了植被分类系统,分析了2个时期的植被景观格局特征及其变化,并利用马尔柯夫模型,对未来该区域植被景观的动态变化进行了预测。结果表明,怒江流域中段植被景观以灌草丛为基质,其他景观类型镶嵌于其中。1994—2004年,各种植被景观类型之间发生转移最多的是在灌草丛、半湿润常绿阔叶林和针阔混交林之间。变化最大的是海拔较低的灌草丛和半湿润常绿阔叶林等;海拔较高的针阔混交林、寒温性针叶林等的变化均不明显。结果预示,未来10年,人为干扰对整个流域植被演替的影响将进一步加强,灌草丛、寒温性针叶林等面积不断增加,半湿润常绿阔叶林和中山湿性常绿阔叶林面积不断减少,景观整体趋于破碎化,研究区的生态环境受到人类活动严重影响。By using GIS, RS and GPS techniques and the TM images of 1994 and 2004, the changes of vegetation landscape patterns in central Nujiang watershed in 1994-2004 were studied, and the prediction of the changes in next ten years was made by using Markov process model. The results showed that the matrix of the landscape in study area was composed of shrub and grass, with other landscape patches embedded. In 1994-2004, the most transfers among land- scape types were between shrub-grass, semi-humid evergreen broadleaved forest, and coniferousbroadleaved mixed forest. The greatest change occurred in shrub-grass and semi-humid evergreen broadleaved forest at low elevation, while no obvious change was observed in coniferous-broadleaved mixed forest and cold temperate coniferous forest at high elevation. It was predicted that in the next ten years, the influence of human interference on the vegetation succession in the whole watershed would be further increased, the areas of shrub-grass and cold temperate coniferous forest would increase while those of semi-humid evergreen broadleaved forest and humid evergreen broadleaved forest would decrease, the landscape as a whole would be fragmented, and the regional eco-environment would be seriously affected.

关 键 词：植被景观 景观动态 马尔柯夫模型 怒江流域中段 地理信息系统 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]