基于指数平滑法的装备维修器材需求量预测  

Requirement Forecast of Maintenance Equipment Based on Exponential Smoothing

作　　者：程玉波[1] 车建国[1] 杨作宾[1] 李哲[2] 

机构地区：[1]防空兵指挥学院,河南郑州450052 [2]重庆大学动力工程学院,重庆400030

出　　处：《指挥控制与仿真》2009年第1期115-117,共3页Command Control & Simulation

摘　　要：准确地预测维修器材需求量是制定装备保障计划的重要依据。针对装备维修器材需求量预测相对不够准确的问题,通过对两种预测方法进行比较,引入了适用于准确预测的指数平滑方法,建立了基于指数平滑法的装备维修器材需求量预测模型,介绍了确定初始值的方法,并以某种维修器材需求量预测为例进行了分析,为准确预测装备维修器材需求量提供了一种较为科学合理的方法。Accurately forecasting the requirements of maintenance equipment is significant to making equipment support scheme. In order to solve the problem of maintenance equipment forecasting inaccuracy, by the comparing the two forecasting methods, this paper sets up a requirement forecasting model of maintenance equipment based on exponential smoothing which is applied for accurate forecasting, introduces the method of initial value ascertainment and analyses the example. As a result, it provides a scientific approach for the requirement forecasting of maintenance equipment.

关 键 词：指数平滑法 维修器材需求量 预测 

分 类 号：U674.7[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程] O211.61[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]