北疆积雪深度和积雪日数的变化趋势  

The Changing Tendency on the Depth and Days of Snow Cover in Northern Xinjiang

作　　者：王秋香[1,2] 张春良[3] 刘静[1] 刘卫平[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆气象信息中心,乌鲁木齐830002 [2]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,乌鲁木齐830002 [3]新疆维吾尔自治区人工影响天气办公室,乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2009年第1期39-43,共5页Climate Change Research

基　　金：公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(IBM200701);国家自然科学基金项目(40875010)资助

摘　　要：选取新疆北疆20个站1961—2006年积雪及稳定积雪日数、最大积雪深度资料,同时选择冬季降水量和气温稳定通过0℃以下的日数作为积雪的影响因子,分析了46a来北疆积雪的变化趋势。结果表明:46a来最大积雪深度呈显著增加趋势,平均年增长0.8%,其变化与冬季降水量增加有关,呈正相关;积雪日数和稳定积雪日数也呈稍增加趋势,增加主要发生在1960—1980年代,1990年代以来有所减少,其变化与气温稳定通过0℃以下的日数呈显著正相关。Based on the meteorological observations at 20 representative stations in Northern Xinjiang in 1961- 2006, trends of snow cover （including the maximum depth, days of snow cover and steady snow cover） were investigated using the methods of autoregressive moving average model, second order principal value function, and correlation analysis. The results show that the maximum depth of snow cover was significantly positively correlated with winter precipitation; the maximum depth increased at an average annual growth rate of 0.8% in the past 46 years, which was smaller than that of winter precipitation. The day numbers of snow cover and steady snow cover were also significantly positively correlated with days of temperature steadily below 0 ℃, but the increasing trend of snow cover days was not significant; the days of snow cover increased from the 1960s to the 1980s, but decreased after the 1990s.

关 键 词：北疆 积雪 稳定积雪 最大积雪深度 多年变化 趋势 

分 类 号：P426.635[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]