油气管道腐蚀可靠性的贝叶斯评价法  

The Reliability Evaluation of Corrosive Oil and Gas Pipeline Based on Bayesian Method

作　　者：张鹏[1] 彭星煜[1] 胡明[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学建筑工程学院

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2008年第12期133-139,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助(20060615003);油气藏地质及开发工程国家重点实验室开放基金资助(PLN0113);国家"十一五"科技支撑计划重点项目(2006BAJ16B03);中国石油科技风险创新研究项目(050511-5-2)

摘　　要：对油气管道腐蚀危害因素进行分析,建立其失效故障树。根据故障树分析原理,找出导致管道腐蚀穿孔破坏的23个因素。通过对故障树的定性分析,采用下行法求出油气管道腐蚀失效故障树的96个全部最小割集,并确定失效的主要影响因素。结合最小割集不相交化法和贝叶斯可靠性评定法对管道腐蚀失效进行定量分析,通过某油气管道事故统计数据,利用贝叶斯可靠性评定方法求出油气管道腐蚀可靠性的一阶矩和二阶矩。对一阶矩和二阶矩进行拟合,求出油气管道腐蚀可靠性的第一近似下限和第二近似下限。结果表明:得出的油气腐蚀管道贝叶斯可靠性评价结果可以指导管道系统的维护和维修,降低管道运行的风险。The fault tree for pipeline corrosion was established by analyzing the risk factors affecting the corrosion of oil and gas pipeline. And 23 factors affecting the corrosion of pipeline were determined according to the principle of FTA （fault tree analysis）. Then, 96 minimal cut sets （MCS） were calculated out with downward method through qualitative analysis of FTA, and main factors leading to the corrosion failure of pipeline were determined. According to the statistical data of certain oil and gas pipeline accidents, a quantitative analysis was made on the corrosion failure of pipeline by using Bayesian method and non-intersecting method of MCS, and the first moment and the second moment of the pipeline reliability were obtained. Finally, a fitting was conducted on the first moment and the second moment, and the first approximate lower limit and second approximate lower limit for pipeline corrosion reliability were calculated out. The conclusion indicates that the reliability evaluation result of corrosive pipeline based on Bayesian method can guide the maintenance and repair of pipeline system and reduce the risk of pipeline.

关 键 词：贝叶斯近似评定法 油气管道 可靠性 故障树分析(FTA) 失效概率 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]