中国农产品虚拟水-耕地资源区域时空差异演变  

Changes in Spatial and Temporal Differences of Agricultural Product Virtual Water Versus Cultivated Land in China

作　　者：孙才志[1] 张蕾[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,大连116029

出　　处：《资源科学》2009年第1期84-93,共10页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(编号:07BJY066);国家自然科学基金(编号:40501013)。

摘　　要：虚拟水是当今水科学的研究热点,被认为是解决粮食与水资源安全的重要策略。本文在测算中国各地区农产品虚拟水总量的基础上,得出1996年～2006年中国农产品虚拟水与耕地资源基尼系数在0.2～0.3之间,并呈波动下降趋势,这表明二者分布"相对均衡",且均衡程度在增强。同时,运用锡尔指数的分解方法,对中国区域农产品虚拟水空间总差异分解成区域内部差异和区域间差异。结果表明:农产品虚拟水区域总体差异有缩小趋势,影响八大区域总体差异形成的主导因素是区际间差异,另外,引入区域分离系数的方法,表明中国地均农产品虚拟水南北方区域差异变化呈现出收敛趋同的态势。通过地均农产品虚拟水变化对区域差异收敛与发散贡献的空间分析,最终将中国各省市划分为6种发展模式。通过对虚拟水净出口量与各种资源要素的秩相关系数的计算,表明驱动农产品虚拟水流动的主要原因是耕地资源而不是水资源,同时也表明农产品虚拟水与地区虚拟水流量呈现较强的正相关关系。本文的研究结果可揭示地均农产品虚拟水区域差异背后体现的农业集约化空间分异特征规律,为制定不同区域类型的农业发展决策提供相应的理论参考。Virtual water has become a central issue of water science, and is regarded as a central mechanism for resolving risks of food security and water security. As a basis of calculating the total quantity of virtual water in China＇ s main agricultural products from 1996 to 2006, we calculated the Gini coefficients of this virtual water versus cultivated land from 1996 to 2006. The values were between 0.2-0.3, and showed a declining trend. This result demonstrates that the distribution of the two factors was in ＇comparative equilibrium＇ and this equilibrium tended to strengthen. Based on the decomposition of Theil index sequence using wavelets of different spatial scales, which has recently been recognized as the first and foremost contributor to Chinese regional disparities, the overall regional inequality of agricultural product virtual water can be divided into two components, of within-region inequality and between-region inequality. The result of decomposition showed that overall regional inequality tended to decrease from 1996 to 2006, and the dominant source of regional inequality at an eight-region level was between-region disparities. Of the eight regions, the most significant within-region disparity was in southwest China. Otherwise, the decomposition of inequalities between eastern, central, and western China from 1996 to 2006 showed that the dominant source of regional inequality at a three-region level was within-region disparities. The within-region inequality of northern China was lower than southern China. Using a separation index measure based on regional decomposition, we quantitatively analyzed the relationship between regional agricultural product virtual water per cultivated land growth and spatial structure variation in different regions of China. The general conclusion was that with the development of agricultural product virtual water per cultivated land, regional inequality showed continuous growth of convergence. Six regional types were found through our analysis of convergence and div

关 键 词：农产品 虚拟水 锡尔指数 基尼系数 区域分离系数 中国 

分 类 号：F323.2[经济管理—产业经济] F224