System Dynamics Approach to Urban Water Demand Forecasting—A Case Study of Tianjin  

作　　者：张宏伟 张雪花 张宝安 

机构地区：[1]School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University [2]Department of Environmental System Analysis, Tianjin Polytechnic University

出　　处：《Transactions of Tianjin University》2009年第1期70-74,共5页天津大学学报（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.50578108);Doctoral Programs Foundation of Ministry of Education of China (No.20050056016);National Key Program for Basic Research ( "973" Program, No.2007CB407306-1);Science and Technology Development Foundation of Tianjin (No.033113811 and No.05YFSYSF032);Educational Commission of Hebei Province (No.2008324);Tianjin Social Key Foundation (No.tjyy08-01-078).

摘　　要：A system dynamics approach to urban water demand forecasting was developed based on the analysis of urban water resources system, which was characterized by multi-feedback and nonlinear interactions among sys-tem elements. As an example, Tianjin water resources system dynamic model was set up to forecast water resources demand of the planning years. The practical verification showed that the relative error was lower than 10%. Fur-thermore, through the comparison and analysis of the simulation results under different development modes pre-sented in this paper, the forecasting results of the water resources demand of Tianjin was achieved based on sustain-able utilization strategy of water resources.A system dynamics approach to urban water demand forecasting was developed based on the analysis of urban water resources system, which was characterized by multi-feedback and nonlinear interactions among system elements. As an example, Tianjin water resources system dynamic model was set up to forecast water resources demand of the planning years. The practical verification showed that the relative error was lower than 10%. Furthermore, through the comparison and analysis of the simulation results under different development modes presented in this paper, the forecasting results of the water resources demand of Tianjin was achieved based on sustainable utilization strategy of water resources.

关 键 词：system dynamics water resources demand forecasting NONLINEARITY 

分 类 号：TU991.31[建筑科学—市政工程] N941.3[自然科学总论—系统科学]