我国农业补贴政策的SCGE模型构建及模拟分析  

SCGE Model Construction and Simulation Analysis of the Agricultural Subsidy Policy in China

作　　者：穆月英[1] 小池淳司[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院 [2]日本鸟取大学工学部

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2009年第1期3-15,44,共14页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：教育部规划基金项目"我国农业支持政策的空间性应用一般均衡(SCGE)模型的构建与分析"(编号:05JA790077);日本住友财团"亚洲各国日本相关研究"项目(编号:068065)的资助

摘　　要：近年来我国出台了一系列新的农业补贴政策。为了把握这些政策实施所产生的各种影响,本文通过构建空间性应用一般均衡(SCGE)模型进行了模拟分析。结果表明:粮食直接补贴政策的实施使粮食和其他农业部门的总产出和最终需求增加,使国民收入略有减少;而粮食最低收购价政策则使粮食和其他农业部门的总产出和最终需求减少,使国民收入略有增加。两种农业补贴政策实施后福利收益不会产生太大变化。模拟计算结果随产品替代弹性系数的变化而发生一定变化。In recent yearese Chinese government has carried out a series of new policies of agricultural subsidy. In order to explore the various impacts arising from the implementation of these policies, the Spatial Computable General Equilibrium （SCGE） model was constructed to simulate the impacts in this paper. The results showed that the total output and final demand of the grain and other agricultural sectors would increase accordingly with the implementation of Grain Direct Subsidy Policy, while the national income would have a slight decrease. On the other hand, the total output and final demand of the grain and the other agricultural sectors would decrease accordingly with the implementation of Grain Minimum Purchase Price Policy, while the national income would have a slight increase. But the welfare benefit would not be changed much more after the implementation of these agricultural subsidy policies, and the simulated results would vary with different product substitution elasticity.

关 键 词：粮食直接补贴政策 粮食最低收购价政策 SCGE模型 

分 类 号：F22[经济管理—国民经济]