灰色-自回归动态模型用于原子时尺度计算  

Application of Dynamic Grey-Linear Auto-regressive Model in Time Scale Calculation

作　　者：袁海波[1,2] 董绍武[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院国家授时中心,西安710600 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100039

出　　处：《天文学报》2009年第1期69-75,共7页Acta Astronomica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(60272067)资助

摘　　要：由于各种噪声和其他因素的影响,原子钟运行情况十分复杂.为了准确地预测其确切的频率变化或钟速,有必要研究建立一个可靠的预测模型,通过模型预测原子钟的钟速,以便在地方协调时的监控和地方原子时计算中采用.讨论了如何利用灰色模型与自回归模型对原子钟钟速进行预测,研究并提出了二者的综合模型,结合国家授时中心原子钟实际数据进行了验证,并给出了不同原子钟对应模型的预测精度计算方法.Because of the influence of different noise and the other factors, the running of an atomic clock is very complex. In order to forecast the velocity of an atomic clock accurately, it is necessary to study and design a model to calculate its velocity in the near future. By using the velocity, the clock could be used in the calculation of local atomic time and the steering of local universal time. In this paper, a new forecast model called dynamic grey-liner auto-regressive model is studied, and the precision of the new model is given. By the real data of National Time Service Center, the new model is tested.

关 键 词：天体测量学 时间 

分 类 号：P127[天文地球—天体测量]