气候变化对新疆天山山区自然植被净第一性生产力的影响  

The effects of climate changes on the net primary productivity of natural vegetation in Tianshan Mountains

作　　者：普宗朝[1] 张山清[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆乌鲁木齐市气象局,新疆乌鲁木齐830001 [2]兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州730002

出　　处：《草业科学》2009年第2期11-18,共8页Pratacultural Science

基　　金：新疆气象局科研项目(200708)

摘　　要：在利用天山山区10个有代表性的气象台站1961-2006年的历史气候资料对年平均气温和年降水量变化规律进行统计分析的基础上，采用周广胜、张新时的自然植被净第一性生产力模型。计算了近46年天山山区自然植被净第一性生产力的变化特征，并据此建立了自然植被净第一性生产力与年平均气温和年降水量的统计关系，在此基础上，估算了未来气候变化对自然植被净第一性生产力的可能影响。结果表明，46年来．年平均气温以0．029℃／a的速率升高，年降水量以1．38mm／a的速率增多，受其影响，自然植被净第一性生产力平均以0．013t／（hm^2·a）的速率增长。20世纪70年代初是天山山区气候暖湿化变化和自然植被净第一性生产力开始明显增长的“突变点”。未来气候的“暖湿化”变化对提高天山山区自然植被净第一性生产力将产生积极影响，平均而言．在其他条件不变的前提下，年平均气温每升高1℃或年降水量每增多10％，自然植被净第一性生产力将增加4％～5％。Based on the data obtained from 10 meteorological stations on Tianshan Mountains during 1961- 2006, the fundamental change characteristic of annual average temperatures, annual precipitation were analyzed, and the natural vegetation net primary productivity （NPP） in nearly 46 years of Tianshan Mountains were calculated using the net primary productivity models for natural vegetation made by ZHOU Guang-sheng and ZHANG Xin-shi. Statistic relations between NPP and annual average temperatures, annual precipitation were constituted, and the effect of future climate on NPP was estimated. The main results showed that in 46 years, annual average temperature increased at 0. 029 ℃/a; annual precipitation variations increased at 1.38 mm/a; natural vegetation net primary productivity increased at 0. 013 t/（hm^2· a）. The climate turned to be warmer and humid at the beginning of 1970s and accordingly, natural vegetation net primary productivity had a sudden increase. This kind of climate change in the future will have a positive effect on natural vegetation net primary productivity in Tianshan Mountains. Averagely, if annual average temperature elevates every 1 ℃ or annual precipitation increases every 10%, the NPP will increase 4%-5% if other conditions invariable.

关 键 词：天山山区 气候变化 自然植被 净第一性生产力 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]