当前城市空气污染预报方法存在的问题及新思路  

A New Idea for Urban Air Pollution Forecast

作　　者：王勤耕[1] 夏思佳[1] 万祎雪 金龙山[2] 

机构地区：[1]污染与资源化研究国家重点实验室,南京大学环境学院,江苏南京210093 [2]南京大学大气科学系,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2009年第3期189-192,共4页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：江苏省社会发展科技计划项目(BS2007053)

摘　　要：论述了当前国内外城市空气污染预报的主要方法以及存在的问题,探讨了一个基于贝叶斯网络的城市空气污染预报的新思路,并对其技术路线和关键问题等进行了初步探讨。新方法可以在一定程度上克服了现有方法理论上的缺陷和应用上的困难,而且具有更大的灵活性、现实性和可操作性,对于我国中小城市开展空气污染预报具有较好的应用前景。Based on the analysis of main problem in existing methods for urban air pollution forecasting, a new idea based on Bayesian Network was proposed, with preliminary discussion of technical route as well as key challenges in putting the new idea into practice. Results indicated that the new method can potentially overcome many problem and difficulties facing the existing methods, with outstanding merits in terms of flexibility, practicability and maneuverability. Therefore, a great prospect in application of method can be expected, especially for small and medium sized cities in China.

关 键 词：污染预报 贝叶斯网络 空气质量 预报模式 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]