基于因果模型的拱坝变形安全监控研究  

Research on the Deformation Safety Monitoring of Arch Dam based on Cause-effect Model

作　　者：赵二峰[1,2] 李现敏[3] 娄一青[1,2] 顾艳玲[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电工程学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心,江苏南京210098 [3]河北工程大学工程学院,河北邯郸056038

出　　处：《水力发电》2008年第12期103-106,共4页Water Power

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(2006BAC14B03);国家自然科学基金重点项目(50539010;50539110;50579010;50539030;50809025);国家自然科学基金委员会;二滩水电开发有限责任公司雅砻江水电开发联合研究基金项目(50539030-1-3)

摘　　要：基于因果模型原理,构建了拱坝变形的因素集和结果集,并从相关物理、力学原理出发,研究了拱坝变形和变形原因之间的因果作用机制。据此,融合因果分析图、层次分析法和模糊数学等技术,建立了拱坝变形影响因素的重要度因果分析图;应用小波分析方法提取了变形趋势分量,并将基于范例的因果推理方法引入到拱坝变形因果分析中,将其与传统的回归模型相结合,构建了拱坝变形因果推理模型。研究表明,因果分析理论的引入能够实现对拱坝变形机制进行更全面的分析。Based on the principle of cause-effect model, the factor set and result set of the deformation of arch dam have been constructed. Then the cause-effect mechanism between the deformation and deformation cause of arch dam had been studied in-depth according to the relevant physical and mechanical principle. On the basis of these, causal analysis map, level analysis method and fuzzy math have been integrated to calculate cause-effect importance degree and to draw the corresponding map. After the application of wavelet analysis in extracting the trend component of the deformation, the cause-effect reasoning based on cases has been taken combining with traditional regression model to establish the causeeffect model of arch dam deformation. Research results showed that a more comprehensive analysis can be achieved on the deformation mechanism of arch dam when cause-effect analysis theory has been adopted.

关 键 词：拱坝变形 因果模型 因果重要度 因果推理 安全监控 

分 类 号：TV642.4[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV698.1