喀什地区内脏利什曼病分布的时间-空间聚集性研究  

Study on time-space clustering regarding the distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in Kashgar Re-gion,Xinjiang

作　　者：付青[1] 伍卫平[1] 童苏祥[2] 伊斯拉音·乌斯曼[2] 张松[2] 伊斯康德尔[2] 开塞尔 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所,上海200025 [2]新疆维吾尔自治区疾病预防控制中心 [3]喀什地区疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2009年第1期6-9,共4页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：基金项目：科技却科研院所社会公益研究专项基金资助项目（2004DIB1J036）;上海市科委科研计划资助项目（055958035）.

摘　　要：目的探讨喀什地区内脏利什曼病分布的时间-空间聚集性。方法以地理信息系统为依据，运用时空统计软件的Poisson模型对喀什地区既往11年内脏利什曼病发病数据进行分析，结合地理方位及遥感图片确定聚集区。结果喀什地区存在3个内脏利什曼病分布的高危聚集区及其对应的高发时间框。A聚集区（中心经纬度：E76.08°，N39.52°）半径为6.58km，在1999年1月1日至2003年12月31日的时间框内，聚集区内内脏利什曼病的累积发病率是周围地区的45.98倍（P〈0.0001）；B聚集区（中心经纬度：E79.20°，N39.91°）半径为4.93km，在2002年1月1日至2006年12月31日的时间框内，聚集区内内脏利什曼病的累积发病率是周围地区的9.58倍（P〈0.0001）；C聚集区（中心经纬度：E76.23°，N39.40°）半径为7.63km，在2000年1月1日至2004年12月31日的时间框内，聚集区内内脏利什曼病的累积发病率是周围地区的5.18倍（P〈0.0001）。结论喀什地区内脏利什曼病的发病为非随机分布，存在明显的时间-空间聚集性，3个高危聚集区均位于绿洲地区。Objective To probe time-space clustering on the distribution of visceral leishmaniasis （VL） in Kashgar Region. Methods Based on the geographic information system, a Poisson model of time-space statistical software was applied to analyze data over the past 11 years in the Kashgar Region. Zones with clustering phenomenon were conformed by geographic location and remote sensing images. Results There existed three high risk clustering zones and corresponding time frames of VL in Kashgar Region. The center location of zone A was located in E 76.08°, N 39.52°, with radius as 6.58 km. The high risk time frame was from January 1st of 1999 to December 31st of 2003. Within the zone and time frame, the relative risk （RR） of VL incidence was 45.98 times higher than those outside the scope （P〈0.0001）. Zone B＇s center location was at E 79.20°, N 39.91°, with the radius as 4.93 km. Its high risk time frame was from January 1st of 2002 to December 31st of 2006. Within the zone and time frame, the RR of VL incidence was 9.58 times higher than those outside of the scope （P〈0.0001）. Zone C＇s center location was in E 76.23 °, N 39.40°, and the radius was 7.63 km, with the high risk time frame from January 1 st of 2000 to December 31st of 2004. Within the zone and time frame, the RR of VL incidence was 5.18 times higher than the one from outside of the scope （P〈0.0001）. Conclusion The incidence of VL in Kashgar Region was non-randomly distributed while there existed obvious time-space clustering, with all of three high risk clustering zones located in oasis area where appeared the focus area for control and surveillance of VL.

关 键 词：内脏利什曼病 时间-空间聚集性 分布 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]