水稻褐飞虱发生程度气象预报方法的研究  

Research on the Weather Forecasting Method of Rice Brown Planthopper Occurrence

作　　者：吕冬红[1,2] 王海青[2] 刘素萍[2] 袁昌洪[2] 刘方[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学系,江苏南京210008 [2]江苏省泰州市气象局,江苏泰州225300

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2009年第2期668-671,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：[目的]建立水稻稻飞虱发生程度预报方程，从气象条件的角度对每年的发生程度进行预测，指导稻飞虱的防治工作。[方法]利用江苏泰州地区历年气象资料和水稻稻飞虱发生资料，选取大量气象因子，采用逐步回归的方法，寻找和水稻稻飞虱发生密切相关的气象因子。[结果]前期气象因子与当年水稻稻飞虱发生密切相关；3～5月平均气温与10月上旬褐飞虱影响程度呈负相关；2—4月降水量和降水日数与10月上旬褐飞虱影响程度呈正相关。[结论]以前期气象因子通过逐步回归建立的预报方程可用于实际预测。[ Objective ] The forecasting equation of rice brown planthopper occurrence was established and the prevention and treatment of rice planthopper were guided with the prediction result from the perspective of the weather condition. [ Method ] The data of the weather and rice planthopper occurrence in Taizhou of Jiangsu province being taken as basic information, the relationship between meteorological factor and rice planthopper occurrence was analyzed with the method of stepwise regression. [ Results ] There was a close relationship between the weather factor before its occurrence and the occurrence of rice planthopper. There was negative relationship between average temperature from March to May and planthopper occurrence in the early October and the precipitation and the number of raining day in February to April was positively correlated with the planthopper occurrence in early October. ＇[ Conclusion] With the stepwise regression, the forecasting equation of the planthopper occurrence established based on the meteorological factors in early-period of that year could be used for the actual forecast.

关 键 词：稻飞虱 气象 预测 

分 类 号：S421[农业科学—植物保护]