二元经济结构下汇率对农产品贸易的影响分析  

Effect Analysis of Exchange Rate to Agricultural Product Trade under Dual Economy Structure

作　　者：刘艺卓[1] 吕剑[2] 

机构地区：[1]农业部农业贸易促进中心,北京100026 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《山西财经大学学报》2009年第2期47-54,共8页Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：构建了二元经济结构下汇率变动对农产品进出口贸易影响的模型,并结合我国数据进行了实证分析。通过引入非农就业人口比重作为二元经济结构的代理变量,发现其是促进我国农产品出口和缓解贸易逆差的最重要的因素;此外,人民币贬值、外国加权GDP以及出口退税的增加将会促进农产品出口,而人民币升值、国内GDP的提高以及国际石油价格的上涨将会增加农产品进口。因此,解决我国农产品贸易逆差问题的有效办法是改善二元经济结构和放缓人民币升值速度。This paper constructs the influence model of exchange rate to agricultural product import and export trade under dual economy structure, and makes an empirical analysis of that. The authors find some important factors which are the vital factors in promoting Chinese agricultural product export. The authors put forward some suggestion based on the empirical results, such as the best way to solve the trade deficit of domestic agricultural products is to improve dual economy structure and slow down the RMB appreciation.

关 键 词：二元经济结构 人民币汇率 农产品 进出口贸易 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易]