基于“配料法”的湖南省暴雨落区预报  

The Ingredients-based Methodology for Forecasting Rainstorm Area in Hunan Province

作　　者：韩沁哲[1] 蔡荣辉[1] 匡方毅 

机构地区：[1]湖南省气象科学研究所,湖南长沙410007 [2]长沙市气象台,湖南长沙410205

出　　处：《广东气象》2009年第1期12-14,18,共4页Guangdong Meteorology

基　　金："长江中游暴雨洪水定量预报系统"第7专题:暴雨落区预报--配料法

摘　　要：利用"配料法",以数值预报产品为基础,结合常规、非常规气象资料,对历史暴雨过程进行诊断分析,探索针对湖南常见暴雨类型的配料法选择方式。分析表明,从水汽诊断量、垂直运动诊断量、抬升稳定度3个方面选择合适的因子进行暴雨落区预测,注重动力和热力的配合、低层和高层的配合,结果比较定量客观,物理含义也比较清晰。同时考虑3种具有独立意义的物理量类型搭配使用,可以避免类似的物理量的重复使用,预报效果较好。Based on numerical weather prediction, as well as conventional and non -conventional meteorological data, the ingredients - based methodology was employed to perform diagnostic analyses on historical torrential rain events, trying to find a better way to select factors for the method in terms of heavy rain events in Hunan province. The results show that, factors from aspects of moist, vertical motion and stability, could be chosen for rainstorm area forecast. With collaborations of thermal and dynamic elements as well as low and high level factors, objective and quantitative results could be obtained with clear physical meaning. Combination use of the three kinds of independent physical elements would help avoid repeated use of similar forecast factors to gain a satisfactory result.

关 键 词：天气学 暴雨落区预报 配料法 物理量 

分 类 号：P44[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]