黄河干流梯级水电站补偿调节方案评价模型研究  

Evaluation model for compensating regulation schemes of cascade hydropower stations on the main stream of Yellow River

作　　者：杨文娟[1] 黄强[1] 畅建霞[1] 吕玉洁[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院,西安710048

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2009年第1期5-11,共7页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40501011);青海省科技厅资助项目(2004-G-158)

摘　　要：本文针对黄河干流梯级水库电站补偿调节问题,生成了2020水平年共17个补偿调节方案;在此基础上,应用补偿调节仿真模型,获得了17个方案的补偿调节结果;通过定性与定量分析,构建了评价指标体系;运用系统科学的理论和方法建立了确定性评价与风险分析模型,并引入近似理想解方法对黄河干流梯级水库电站补偿调节方案进行了综合评价,推荐了最优方案。结果表明,本文建立的补偿调节方案评价模型是合理可行的。Aiming at the problem of compensating regulation of cascade hydropower stations on the main stream of Yellow River, the 17 integrated compensating regulation schemes of 2020 year are established, the compensating regulation results of these schemes are gained by application of compensating regulation simulation model. By qualitative and quantitative analysis, evaluation index system is built. Determinate evaluation and risk analysis models are studied by using theory and method of system science, the approximate ideal solution method is introduced to evaluate the compensating regulation schemes, thus the optimal scheme is established. The result indicates that the evaluation model for the compensating regulation is reasonable and feasible.

关 键 词：水资源 评价 蒙特卡罗法 黄河 风险分析 层次分析法 

分 类 号：TV697.3[水利工程—水利水电工程]