GDP中劳动份额演变的U型规律  

The U Curve of Labor Share in GDP during Economic Development

作　　者：李稻葵[1,2] 刘霖林[1,2] 王红领[3] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院 [2]清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心,100084 [3]中国社会科学院经济研究所,100836

出　　处：《经济研究》2009年第1期70-82,共13页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：教育部长江学者奖励计划;国家自然科学基金(项目号:70473048)的支持

摘　　要：本文旨在探讨经济发展过程中,劳动份额在初次分配中演变的一般规律,以及当前导致中国初次分配中劳动份额不断下降的结构性因素。本文发现,在世界各国的经济发展过程中,在初次分配中劳动份额的变化趋势呈现U型规律,即劳动份额先下降后上升,转折点约为人均GDP6000美元(2000年购买力平价)。本文提出了一个解释该U型规律的理论模型。这一发现为库兹涅茨"倒U曲线假说"提供了更深层次的解释。本文还发现,中国初次分配中劳动份额的变动趋势是基本符合这一规律的。此外,影响我国劳动份额的因素还包括产业结构以及劳动者相对谈判能力的变化。这些发现意味着,中国经济未来两年左右在初次分配中劳动份额可能进入上升通道,中央政府为应对世界性金融危机而采取一些政策性、结构性调整则有助于加快这一进程。Labor share in GDP is key to understanding income distribution, it is a foundation for analyzing investment, savings, and consumption in an economy, also reveals microeconomic behavior of the economy. This paper is to document the evolution of labor share in the Chinese economy and to explore possible explanations of the evolution of labor share. Labor share in the Chinese economy has been decreasing and is lower than those of developed countries. In our study, we find labor share in economic development seems to follow a U shaped curve, the lowest point is USD 6000 per capita PPP （2000 constant）, the Chinese economy seems to follow this pattern so far, and other factors affecting labor share in China include industry structure and labor＇s bargaining power. We suggest a theoretic model to explain the U shaped curve： the labor forces are different from capital, which have friction in the transfer period between different sectors. In the beginning of the transfer period, the income of labor in the industry sector is lower than the marginal production, so the labor share is decreasing in the beginning of the economy development. When the labor force transformation is almost complete, the labor income share will increase. In our study we expect the labor income share will rise in two years.

关 键 词：初次分配 劳动份额 GDP 

分 类 号：F222.33[经济管理—国民经济]